Ensuring competitiveness of retail chains in the context of digital transformation of the regional service market (case study of the Republic of Tajikistan)

Background. The current stage of world economic development is characterised by accelerated digital transformation of the service sector, but digitalisation processes are uneven. In Central Asian countries, particularly in the Republic of Tajikistan, retail chains coexist with a powerful informal sector – traditional bazaars, cash payments and minibuses as the main mode of transport. Classical theories of competitiveness and spatial organisation (M. Porter, W. Christaller, A. Lösch) are designed for formal institutions and do not account for the effect of “hybrid spaces”, creating a conceptual gap and requiring adaptation. Purpose – to develop theoretical and methodological provisions and practical recommendations for ensuring the competitiveness of retail chains in the context of digital transformation of the regional service market using the example of Dushanbe (Republic of Tajikistan). Materials and methods. The research is based on official statistical data from the Agency for Statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan (2013–2024), anonymised transaction data from retail chains “Real Trading”, “Yovar”, “bi1” (1.2 million receipts), the author’s field data (survey of 200 consumers, 17 expert interviews), GIS mapping of 120+ retail facilities. General scientific methods (system analysis, synthesis), economic and statistical methods (regression and correlation analysis), spatial methods (GIS analysis in QGIS), and econometric modelling were used. Results. The authors propose an original interpretation of “competitiveness of a retail chain in hybrid space” that considers the simultaneous influence of digital channels (ERP, online platforms) and traditional institutions (bazaars, cash payments, minibuses). Specific factors are identified: the transport “flickering” coefficient (accessibility of minibuses within a 300–500 m radius), the informal employment index in the district, and seasonal migration volatility. The theory of hybrid spaces is adapted: a modification of the Christaller–Lösch model is proposed with the introduction of dynamic weights, and reduced “flickering” correction factors (α = 0.4–0.6) are substantiated. A methodology for quantifying the competitive impact of traditional bazaars is developed: regression analysis of panel data for 8 Real Trading outlets shows that the presence of a large market (Farovon) reduces revenue of nearby chain stores by 7–12% (95% confidence interval). A modified gravity model for retail location (based on GIS analysis of 120+ points) is constructed, taking into account pedestrian accessibility from minibus stops (300–500 m radius) and seasonal migration volatility; verification on transaction data shows an increase in revenue forecast accuracy by 15–20% compared to traditional approaches. An organisational and economic mechanism is proposed, including a three‑stage location selection algorithm (screening → GIS analysis → econometric validation) and a matrix for adapting digital tools depending on the district type.