Regional market of bread and bakery products: Development trends and development of competitive strategies

Background. This article presents the results of an analysis of the bread and bakery market. Both domestic and international scholars have addressed the analysis of food segments and the algorithm for substantiating competitive strategies for economic entities in their research. Based on a review of scientific literature devoted to the analysis of the bread and bakery market and the rationale for adapting to the impact of the competitive environment, it can be concluded that the scientific literature has paid insufficient attention to the relationship between the specific features of this market and the models of the main competitive strategies of bakery enterprises, which determined the choice of research topic. The purpose of the study was to identify and analyze trends in the development of the bread and bakery market and to substantiate the competitive strategies of specialized enterprises operating in this market. Materials and methods. We used research methods such as analysis and synthesis, abstraction, modeling, monographic analysis, and time series analysis. The information base consisted of data from the Federal State Statistics Service for the Omsk Region and the Russian Federation. Results. Based on statistical data analysis, it was concluded that, on average, over the period 2010-2023, each resident of the country consumed 117 kg of bread and bakery products in their diet annually, which is significantly higher than the recommended norm. The study was conducted in the Omsk Region, where bread consumption exceeds the Russian average; for the period 2010-2023, per capita bread consumption was 127 kg. It was revealed that consumer demand for bread and bakery products is gradually transforming, with a decrease in demand for traditional, mass-produced breads and an increase in demand for bread and bakery products with various additives and reduced-calorie options. A forecast of bread and bakery product consumption was conducted by processing a dynamic series using the least squares method. The calculation results allowed us to conclude that the projected values for bread and bakery product consumption in 2025-2027 will be: in the Russian Federation, per capita consumption of bread and bakery products will not exceed 114 kg. In the Omsk Region, the decline in consumption of these products will be more significant, averaging 114.6 kg per capita in 2025-2027. Conclusion. The decline in demand for bread and bakery products will be accompanied by a further reduction in production volumes of these products by regional enterprises and increased competition in the bread and bakery market. When substantiating competitive strategies, it is recommended to consider market development characteristics, enterprise resources and capabilities, technological development, seasonality of demand, and consumer preferences. Basic competitive strategies are proposed that bakeries can use to adapt to changes in the competitive environment of the bread and bakery market.