Russia-India energy trade: An estimation and mid‑term forecast through oil market analysis

Background. Against the backdrop of shifting global energy geopolitics, this study examines India’s oil consumption trends as a key driver of hydrocarbon market dynamics. As one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing energy markets, India’s demand trajectory holds strategic importance for enhancing trade and economic collaboration with the Russian Federation. Methodologically, the research integrates a suite of complementary econometric approaches tailored to the structural specificities of the Indian economy. The empirical modeling confirmed that the steady growth of India's oil consumption in the medium term is driven by the expansion of transport infrastructure, and complex demographic dynamics that exert an asymmetric impact on demand. Findings underscore significant potential for scaling up bilateral energy cooperation, contingent on diversifying engagement formats and advancing settlement mechanisms in national currencies. Purpose. To develop a analytically-grounded medium-term forecast of India’s oil consumption and assess potential export volumes from Russia under multiple development scenarios. Methodology. The analysis employs contemporary econometric techniques designed to capture complex interdependencies and generate robust projections. These include multiple linear regression, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) methods, and multi-factor scenario modeling to incorporate external uncertainties. Results. Projections indicate that India’s oil consumption will reach 5.3–6.6 million barrels per day by 2028, while Russian export volumes could range between 0.8 and 2.31 million barrels per day, depending on demand conditions and market share dynamics. Key growth drivers include transportation infrastructure expansion and ongoing demographic shifts. Practical implications. Shaping export strategies, informing energy policy, and optimizing logistics routes to align with evolving market opportunities.