Subway ridership inside and outside Manhattan's congestion relief zone during the first year of congestion pricing

Introduction: Congestion pricing was expected to shift travel toward the subway, yet station-level evidence on ridership inside the tolled zone is scarce. This study compared subway entries at station complexes inside Manhattan's congestion relief zone with those outside it during the first year of the toll. Methods: Open administrative data from the MTA subway hourly ridership datasets were aggregated to station-day entries for 5 January to 31 December 2024 (pre-toll) and the same window in 2025 (first year of the toll). Station complexes south of 60th Street in Manhattan were classified as inside the zone. A difference-in-differences model estimated the ratio of inside to outside ridership change on the log scale. Results: Among 424 station complexes, 65 were inside and 359 outside the zone. Average daily entries rose 7.5% inside and 9.5% outside the zone. The ratio of the inside to the outside change was 0.983 (95% CI 0.966-1.000; p = 0.044), and 0.964 (95% CI 0.939-0.991; p = 0.008) on weekends. Conclusions: Subway ridership inside the congestion relief zone did not increase relative to stations outside it during the first year of congestion pricing. The toll's anticipated mode-shift dividend to the subway was not observed at the station level.