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Public transport service supply versus ridership recovery in the United States: an ecological time-series study

Author

Listed:
  • Montilla, Rómulo Esteban
  • rmontilla@stmarytx.edu
  • Guerrero, Edixon Chacón
  • echaconguerrer@stmarytx.edu

Abstract

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic reduced public transport ridership in the United States more than service supply, but whether that divergence persisted through 2025 and how it varied by mode and agency size has not been quantified nationally. Methods: Ecological time-series study of monthly Federal Transit Administration records for 2019-2025. Recovery indices expressed unlinked passenger trips and vehicle revenue miles as percentages of 2019 values, and the service-ridership gap was computed as their difference. Crude and adjusted volume-weighted differences in the 2025 gap were estimated by mode and agency size. Results: Among 560 agencies and 1,123 agency-mode units, 2025 ridership reached 80.8% and service supply 94.6% of 2019 values, a gap of 13.8 percentage points. The gap was largest for commuter rail (23.4 pp), heavy rail (21.6 pp) and light rail and streetcar (20.5 pp), and smallest for demand response (1.4 pp). After adjustment, commuter rail, heavy rail and light rail remained 10.0, 12.9 and 9.0 percentage points above bus, whereas agency size differences attenuated. Conclusions: Service supply recovered faster and to a higher level than ridership; the residual gap was concentrated in rail modes and attributable to mode mix rather than agency size.

Suggested Citation

  • Montilla, Rómulo Esteban & rmontilla@stmarytx.edu & Guerrero, Edixon Chacón & echaconguerrer@stmarytx.edu, 2026. "Public transport service supply versus ridership recovery in the United States: an ecological time-series study," SAP Transport, Mobility & Society, South American Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwf:tmsart:tms2026302
    DOI: 10.62486/tms2026302
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