Taxi and ride-hailing trips entering the Manhattan congestion relief zone before and after congestion pricing: a difference-in-differences analysis

Introduction: New York City launched congestion pricing in January 2025, charging vehicles that enter the congestion relief zone of Manhattan south of 60th Street. Yellow taxis and high-volume for-hire vehicles pay a per-trip surcharge. Methods: Monthly trip records of yellow taxis and high-volume for-hire vehicles from the New York City Taxi and Limousine Commission, January 2024 through September 2025, were aggregated to daily counts of trips that entered the congestion relief zone and of trips that did not. Negative binomial difference-in-differences models adjusted for day of week, month and public holidays estimated incidence rate ratios. Results: Yellow taxi trips entering the zone rose from 30,041,281 in 2024 to 34,819,458 in 2025, while trips that did not enter rose from 4,698,885 to 6,929,964; the adjusted incidence rate ratio was 0.79 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.81). High-volume for-hire trips entering the zone fell from 82,836,515 to 79,714,402 while non-entering trips rose from 140,385,335 to 146,989,730; the incidence rate ratio was 0.92 (95% CI 0.91 to 0.94). Conclusions: Congestion pricing was associated with a relative decline in taxi and ride-hailing trips entering the congestion relief zone, with a larger and less precisely measured decline for yellow taxis.