Working from home and the decline of transit commuting in US metropolitan areas, 2019-2023

Introduction: Public transportation commuting in the United States contracted sharply after 2020 while working from home expanded, but the contribution of working from home to the decline of transit commuting across metropolitan areas has not been quantified with official data. Methods: This ecological longitudinal change study used American Community Survey 1-year estimates, table B08301, for US metropolitan statistical areas in 2019 and 2023. The primary outcome was the percentage-point change in the share of workers commuting by public transportation; the primary exposure was the percentage-point change in the working-from-home share. Weighted ordinary least squares with weights equal to 2019 workers and HC3 standard errors estimated the association, with unweighted, large-metropolitan and robust sensitivity analyses. Results: A total of 204 metropolitan areas had estimates in both years, representing 123 million workers in 2019. Nationally, working from home rose from 5.72% to 13.84% of workers while public transportation fell from 4.96% to 3.53%. Each 1 percentage-point increase in working from home was associated with a −0.354 percentage-point decline in transit share among all workers (95% CI −0.519 to −0.189) and a −0.294 percentage-point decline among commuters (95% CI −0.432 to −0.155). Estimates were consistent across all sensitivity analyses. Conclusions: Growth in working from home was associated with the decline of transit commuting across US metropolitan areas between 2019 and 2023, through both a smaller commuting population and lower transit use among remaining commuters.