E-bike adoption and mode substitution: a systematic review of replaced travel modes and car use implications

Introduction: Electric bicycles are promoted to reduce car use and transport emissions, but their climate benefit depends on the travel modes they replace. Methods: We conducted a systematic review following PRISMA 2020. Results: From 269 records, 15 studies were included, of which 2 were randomized controlled trials. The car was the mode most frequently reported as replaced, in 14 of 15 studies, followed by the conventional bicycle, public transport and walking. The magnitude varied widely: an incentive program in the Netherlands shifted the e-bike commute share from 0% to 68%, half of those trips replacing the car; a Swedish randomized trial cut car mileage by 37%; a workplace lending program reduced single-occupancy vehicle commuting by 55 percentage points. Two studies found that e-bikes displaced walking, conventional cycling and public transport rather than cars, and e-bike sharing reduced carbon emissions by 108 to 120 g per kilometer. Conclusions: E-bikes replace car trips mainly when programs and contexts target car commuters, but substitution of active and public modes is common and conditions the emission benefit.