Methodological approach to assessing the effectiveness of labor migration policy in the Russian Federation

The effectiveness of labor migration policy is usually assessed based on quantitative indicators: how many permits have been issued, how many patents have been processed, and how well the quota has been met. This approach measures the administrative process rather than the outcome for the economy of the host region. The work is devoted to a methodological approach that distinguishes between two different questions: whether the worker has been recruited and whether the real labor demand of the industry has been met. The analysis is based on data from Rosstat on the labor market, materials from the Ministry of Labor on the quotaing of foreign workers, regional regulations on restrictions on the employment of migrants, and publications from 2024–2026 on the mechanism of organized recruitment. The author believes that an increase in the number of arriving migrants does not equate to solving the staff shortage if the newcomer does not stay in the job for longer than a season or turns to informal employment. The following assessment criteria have been proposed: the compliance of the structure of the recruited workers with the declared shortage by industry, the share of actual retention by the employer, the dynamics of regional restrictions and their impact on the redistribution of flows between entities. The gap between the official quota and its actual implementation is considered separately; in practice, it rarely reaches the full volume — on average, about 60%. The result of the work is intended for the revision of regional programs for attracting foreign labour.