Factors influencing the development of small businesses: results of long–term monitoring (2009–2024)

The article presents the results of long–term monitoring of macroeconomic and microeconomic factors affecting the development of small business in Russia for the period from 2009 to 2024. The study was conducted on the basis of surveys of 352 experts (business leaders and scientists) from 29 regions of Russia in five time slices (2009, 2012, 2015, 2018, 2024 years). The dynamics of the influence of 37 factors at both macro and micro levels is revealed, cross–cutting problems are identified (unavailability of credit, high tax burden, dependence on imports, uncertainty of the business environment), and the evolution of anti–crisis measures of business over the period under study is presented. A correlation model of the dependence of the business confidence index on the factors of the internal environment has been developed. It has been established that the leading factors in terms of frequency of mentions (taxes, loan rates) have no statistical significance, whereas the real impact is exerted by the uncertainty of the economic situation, insufficient demand, imperfect regulatory framework and worn–out equipment. Based on monitoring, the author suggests identifying weaknesses in government policy and applying appropriate tools for the development of small business in Russia that are scientifically sound and ensure the effectiveness of the development of this institution.