Impact of human capital losses in IT entrepreneurship on the post-war recovery of Ukraine’s economy

The article is devoted to substantiating the causal impact of human capital losses in IT entrepreneurship due to migration processes on the post-war recovery of the Ukrainian economy based on a multi-criteria model of indicators and the interpretation of lag variables. It is identified that the migration crisis in IT is escalating, which directly affects the prospects for economic growth and complicates the recovery of the national economy in the post-war period. A two-vector concept of the impact of human capital losses in IT entrepreneurship is established: (1) migration outflow to the sector abroad (emigration) with a projection on IT development indicators; (2) the existing economic potential of the state with a projection on post-war recovery. The following indicators of the development of the IT segment are substantiated: economic potential, human capital, innovative investments as an information-analytical basis of the study based on the principles of dynamism and integrity. The results of dynamic modeling of economic potential and post-war recovery of Ukraine for 2018-2023 proved the thesis that indicators of economic potential have a complementary lag interaction. It was established that the strength of the impact of migration of IT specialists on economic potential increases in a time lag of 2-3 years. It is proven that an increase in the balance of migration of IT specialists by 1% leads to a weakening of economic potential by 0.15%. It is substantiated that in the absence of an effective policy for managing migration processes and ensuring re-emigration of the population, the economic effect of using migration transfers will not exceed the economic losses from weakening potential, especially at the stage of post-war recovery of the Ukrainian economy