Impact of the Presence of Embassies on Trade: Evidence from Turkey

This paper analyzes the impact of the presence of foreign missions on trade using Turkey's unique expansion in its foreign embassy network (39 new embassies in 8 years) as the source of variation in a panel data setting. A majority of the existing empirical studies use cross-sectional bilateral trade data due to lack of variation over time (Rose, 2007; Moons and Bergeijk, 2013). Employing a panel data analysis, this paper is able to address the endogeneity issues that are associated with a standard cross-sectional analysis. The dependent variable in the paper is the trade between Turkey and 190 countries for 2006 to 2016. The results indicate that presence of an embassy increases export value by 30% and this increase comes mainly from the volume effect. Categorizing goods by the Rauch (1999) classification shows that the increase in differentiated goods exports is the main driver of the export surge. The number of exporting firms increases by about 8%. There is no statistically significant impact on the exports of homogeneous goods. Replication of the analysis for imports suggests no impact on imports.