Do Anti-dumping Duties Still Matter? The Curious Case of Aluminum Foil

In 2009, the EU imposed anti-dumping duties on aluminum foil imported from Armenia, Brazil, and China for five years. The final determination resulted in the imposition of definitive anti-dumping duties of 13.4% (Armenia), 17.6% (Brazil), and 6.4–30% (China). This paper quantifies the direct and indirect effects of the EU anti-dumping duty on EU and US imports from targeted and unaffected countries using detailed data for the years 2006 through 2012, and controlling for exports of all products within the aluminum sheet, plate, and foil manufacturing industry from all countries. The findings point to the trade destruction, trade depression, trade diversion, and trade deflection effects typically found in the existing literature. However, the uniqueness of this case lies in the fact that the Armenian exporter is a subsidiary of a Russian firm. And as Armenia's exports to the EU declined, they expanded rapidly to the US. At the same time, the US imports from Russia, a country not directly touched by the anti-dumping ruling, declined dramatically, and were diverted to the EU. This points to the potential ineffectiveness of anti-dumping duties in the presence of multinational corporations with production facilities located across countries differentially impacted by anti-dumping duties.