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Prospects for the UK Economy

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  • Kirby, Simon
  • Barrell, Ray

Abstract

The UK economy remains in the worst recession since the Second World War. Revisions to the official GDP numbers suggest that the economy contracted even more sharply than previously thought in the first quarter of this year: 2.4 per cent compared to the preliminary estimate of a 1.9 per cent contraction. Following the publication of our April Review, new data almost immediately suggested that the UK recession might have ended. However, the recovery of industrial production in April did not continue into May and our projections remain much as they were in April, although the quarterly profile has changed, as we can see from figure 1. The dating of the recession, according to official statistics, has also been adjusted. GDP growth rates have been revised back to 2004 (figure 1), and they now suggest that the start of the recession was the second quarter of 2008. This brings the quarterly profile of GDP growth into line with NIESR's monthly estimates of GDP which date the start of the recession as March or April 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirby, Simon & Barrell, Ray, 2009. "Prospects for the UK Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 209, pages 42-59, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:nierev:v:209:y:2009:i::p:42-59_9
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