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TAYLOR RULE AND DISCRETIONARY REGIMES IN THE UNITED STATES: EVIDENCE FROM A k-STATE MARKOV REGIME-SWITCHING MODEL

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  • Alba, Joseph D.
  • Wang, Peiming

Abstract

We examine U.S. monetary policies from 1973 to 2014 with the Taylor rule as a benchmark by utilizing a k-state Markov regime-switching model in which the number and the periods of the regimes are endogenously determined. The model relates the federal funds rate to real time output gaps and inflation forecast. It endogenously identifies the periods of Taylor rule regime and discretionary regimes, consistent with the U.S. experience. The Taylor rule regime also coincides with periods of lower variability in inflation and in real GDP growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Alba, Joseph D. & Wang, Peiming, 2017. "TAYLOR RULE AND DISCRETIONARY REGIMES IN THE UNITED STATES: EVIDENCE FROM A k-STATE MARKOV REGIME-SWITCHING MODEL," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(3), pages 817-833, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:21:y:2017:i:03:p:817-833_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Dibooglu, Sel & Erdogan, Seyfettin & Yildirim, Durmus Cagri & Cevik, Emrah Ismail, 2020. "Financial conditions and monetary policy in the US," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    2. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2024. "Time-varying parameters in monetary policy rules: a GMM approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 51(9), pages 148-176, January.

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