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Strategic Default, Debt Structure, and Stock Returns

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  • Valta, Philip

Abstract

This paper theoretically and empirically investigates how debt structure and strategic interaction among shareholders and debt holders in the event of default affect expected stock returns. The model predicts that expected stock returns are higher for firms that face high debt renegotiation difficulties and that have a large fraction of secured or convertible debt. Using a large sample of publicly traded U.S. firms for the period 1985–2012, the paper presents new evidence on the link between debt structure and stock returns that is supportive of the model’s predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Valta, Philip, 2016. "Strategic Default, Debt Structure, and Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 197-229, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:51:y:2016:i:01:p:197-229_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Guanhao Feng & Stefano Giglio & Dacheng Xiu, 2020. "Taming the Factor Zoo: A Test of New Factors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(3), pages 1327-1370, June.
    2. Kim, Hwa-Sung, 2023. "Forced conversion to Chapter 7 bankruptcy and optimal financial decisions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    3. Panagiotis Avramidis & Ioannis Asimakopoulos & Dimitris Malliaropulos, 2023. "Disrupted Lending Relationship and Borrower's Strategic Default," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 91-116, February.
    4. Mateus, Irina B. & Mateus, Cesario & Todorovic, Natasa, 2019. "Review of new trends in the literature on factor models and mutual fund performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 344-354.
    5. Chaderina, Maria & Weiss, Patrick & Zechner, Josef, 2022. "The maturity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 670-694.
    6. Tran, Vu Le, 2023. "Sentiment and covariance characteristics," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    7. Faiza Sajjad & Muhammad Zakaria, 2018. "Credit Ratings and Liquidity Risk for the Optimization of Debt Maturity Structure," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-16, May.
    8. Andrew Y. Chen & Tom Zimmermann, 2022. "Open Source Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 11(2), pages 207-264, May.
    9. Geertsema, Paul & Lu, Helen, 2020. "The correlation structure of anomaly strategies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    10. De Nard, Gianluca & Zhao, Zhao, 2022. "A large-dimensional test for cross-sectional anomalies:Efficient sorting revisited," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 654-676.
    11. Suleiman A. Badayi & Bolaji T. Matemilola & Bany‐Ariffin A.N & Lau Wei Theng, 2021. "Does corporate social responsibility influence firm probability of default?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3377-3395, July.
    12. Muhammad Atif & Searat Ali, 2021. "Environmental, social and governance disclosure and default risk," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(8), pages 3937-3959, December.
    13. Kose John & Mahsa S Kaviani & Lawrence Kryzanowski & Hosein Maleki, 2021. "Do Country-Level Creditor Protections Affect Firm-Level Debt Structure Concentration? [Why not a political Coase theorem? Social conflict, commitment, and politics]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(6), pages 1677-1725.
    14. Lai, Xiaobing & Yue, Shujing & Guo, Chong & Zhang, Xinhe, 2023. "Does FinTech reduce corporate excess leverage? Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 281-299.
    15. Kim, Gi H., 2016. "Credit derivatives as a commitment device: Evidence from the cost of corporate debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 67-83.
    16. Gianluca De Nard & Simon Hediger & Markus Leippold, 2022. "Subsampled factor models for asset pricing: The rise of Vasa," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 1217-1247, September.
    17. Ho, Kung-Cheng & Yen, Huang-Ping & Lu, Canyi & Lee, Shih-Cheng, 2023. "Does information disclosure and transparency ranking system prevent the default risk of a firm?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1089-1105.
    18. Panagiotis Avramidis & Ioannis Asimakopoulos & Dimitris Malliaropulos, 2021. "Disrupted lending relationship and borrower's strategic default: evidence from the tourism industry during the Greek economic crisis," Working Papers 285, Bank of Greece.
    19. Weichuan Deng & Pawel Polak & Abolfazl Safikhani & Ronakdilip Shah, 2023. "A Unified Framework for Fast Large-Scale Portfolio Optimization," Papers 2303.12751, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    20. Hediger, Simon & Michel, Loris & Näf, Jeffrey, 2022. "On the use of random forest for two-sample testing," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    21. Hou, Kewei & Xue, Chen & Zhang, Lu, 2017. "Replicating Anomalies," Working Paper Series 2017-10, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    22. Galya Taseva, 2020. "Determinants of Short-term Liabilities of Financially Distressed SME-s," Business Management, D. A. Tsenov Academy of Economics, Svishtov, Bulgaria, issue 1 Year 20, pages 5-24.
    23. Nadarajah, Sivathaasan & Duong, Huu Nhan & Ali, Searat & Liu, Benjamin & Huang, Allen, 2021. "Stock liquidity and default risk around the world," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    24. Jiaju Miao & Pawel Polak, 2023. "Online Ensemble of Models for Optimal Predictive Performance with Applications to Sector Rotation Strategy," Papers 2304.09947, arXiv.org.

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