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Analysts' Conflicts of Interest and Biases in Earnings Forecasts


  • Chan, Louis K. C.
  • Karceski, Jason
  • Lakonishok, Josef


Analysts' earnings forecasts are influenced by their desire to win investment banking clients. We hypothesize that the equity bull market of the 1990s, along with the boom in investment banking business, exacerbated analysts' conflicts of interest and their incentives to strategically adjust forecasts to avoid earnings disappointments. We document shifts in the distribution of earnings surprises and related changes in the market's response to surprises and forecast revisions. The evidence for shifts is stronger for growth stocks, where conflicts of interest are more pronounced. However, shifts are less notable for analysts without ties to investment banking and in international markets.

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  • Chan, Louis K. C. & Karceski, Jason & Lakonishok, Josef, 2007. "Analysts' Conflicts of Interest and Biases in Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(04), pages 893-913, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:42:y:2007:i:04:p:893-913_00

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Iatridis, George Emmanuel, 2016. "Financial reporting language in financial statements: Does pessimism restrict the potential for managerial opportunism?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-17.
    2. Esther B. Brio & Ilidio Lopes-e-Silva & Javier Perote, 2016. "Effects of opportunistic behaviors on security markets: an experimental approach to insider trading and earnings management," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 33(3), pages 379-402, December.
    3. Régis Breton & Sébastien Galanti & Christophe Hurlin & Anne-Gaël Vaubourg, 2013. "Does the firm-analyst relationship matter in explaining analysts' earnings forecast errors?," Working Papers hal-00862996, HAL.
    4. Chatalova, Natalia & How, Janice C.Y. & Verhoeven, Peter, 2016. "Analyst coverage and IPO management forecasts," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 263-277.
    5. Anne-Gael Vaubourg & Valdete Berisha-Krasniqui & Sébastien Galanti & Christophe Hurlin & Régis Breton, 2013. "We study whether financial analysts' concern for preserving good relationships with firms' managers motivates them to issue pessimistic or optimistic forecasts. Based on a dataset of one-yearahead EPS," Larefi Working Papers 1304, Larefi, Université Bordeaux 4.
    6. Roger K. Loh & Mitch Warachka, 2012. "Streaks in Earnings Surprises and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(7), pages 1305-1321, July.
    7. Ergungor, Ozgur E. & Madureira, Leonardo & Nayar, Nandkumar & Singh, Ajai K., 2015. "Lending relationships and analysts’ forecasts," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 71-88.
    8. Elizabeth Devos & Erik Devos & Seow Eng Ong & Andrew C. Spieler, 2016. "Who Follows REITs?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 38(1), pages 129-164.
    9. Florian Esterer & David Schröder, 2014. "Implied cost of capital investment strategies: evidence from international stock markets," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 171-195, May.
    10. Bradley, Daniel & Clarke, Jonathan & Cooney, John, 2012. "The impact of reputation on analysts’ conflicts of interest: Hot versus cold markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2190-2202.

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