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Market Manipulation, Price Bubbles, and a Model of the U.S. Treasury Securities Auction Market

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  • Chatterjea, Arkadev
  • Jarrow, Robert A.

Abstract

This paper models the U.S. Treasury securities auction market and demonstrates that market manipulation can occur in a rational equilibrium. It is a dynamic model with traders participating in a “when-issued” market, a Treasury auction, and a resale market. Manipulations occur when dealers in the when-issued market use their knowledge of the net order flow in order to corner the auction and squeeze the shorts (from the when-issued market). This manipulation equilibrium generates bubbles in Treasury security prices and specials in repo rates. We also compare discriminatory and uniform price auction rules with respect to manipulation. Our analysis shows that manipulations can occur in long-run equilibrium under discriminatory price auctions, but not under uniform price auctions.

Suggested Citation

  • Chatterjea, Arkadev & Jarrow, Robert A., 1998. "Market Manipulation, Price Bubbles, and a Model of the U.S. Treasury Securities Auction Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(02), pages 255-289, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:33:y:1998:i:02:p:255-289_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Alan Mehlenbacher, 2007. "Multiagent System Simulations of Treasury Auctions," Department Discussion Papers 0709, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    2. Nyborg, Kjell G. & Strebulaev, Ilya A. & Bindseil, Ulrich, 2002. "Bidding and performance in repo auctions: evidence from ECB open market operations," Working Paper Series 0157, European Central Bank.
    3. Keunkwan Ryu & Gyung-Rok Kim & Seonghwan Oh, 2004. "Discriminatory vs Uniform Price Auction: Auction Revenue," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 539, Econometric Society.
    4. Nyborg, Kjell G. & Strebulaev, Ilya A., 2001. "Collateral and short squeezing of liquidity in fixed rate tenders," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 769-792, November.
    5. Saikat Nandi, 1997. "Treasury auctions: what do the recent models and results tell us?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 4, pages 4-15.
    6. Merrick, John J. & Naik, Narayan Y. & Yadav, Pradeep K., 2004. "Strategic trading behavior and price distortion in a manipulated market: Anatomy of a squeeze," CFR Working Papers 04-07, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    7. Jarrow, Robert A. & Turnbull, Stuart M., 2000. "The intersection of market and credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 271-299, January.
    8. Aussenegg, Wolfgang & Pichler, Pegaret & Stomper, Alex, 2006. "IPO Pricing with Bookbuilding and a When-Issued Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(04), pages 829-862, December.
    9. Raphaële Préget, 2004. "Adjudications des valeurs du Trésor," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 18(4), pages 63-110.
    10. Capuano, Christian, 2006. "Strategic noise traders and liquidity pressure with a physically deliverable futures contract," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14.
    11. Nyborg, Kjell G. & Sundaresan, Suresh, 1996. "Discriminatory versus uniform Treasury auctions: Evidence from when-issued transactions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 63-104, September.
    12. Ying-Ju Chen & Gustavo Vulcano, 2009. "Effects of Information Disclosure Under First- and Second-Price Auctions in a Supply Chain Setting," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 11(2), pages 299-316, September.
    13. Bennouri, Moez & Gimpel, Henner & Robert, Jacques, 2011. "Measuring the impact of information aggregation mechanisms: An experimental investigation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 302-318, May.
    14. Rydqvist, Kristian & Wu, Mark, 2016. "Pre-auction inventory and bidding behavior: Evidence from Canadian Treasury auctions," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 78-102.
    15. Matthew Pritsker, 2005. "Large investors: implications for equilibrium asset, returns, shock absorption, and liquidity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Merrick, John Jr & Naik, Narayan Y. & Yadav, Pradeep K., 2005. "Strategic trading behavior and price distortion in a manipulated market: anatomy of a squeeze," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 171-218, July.
    17. Maurice Doyon & Virginie Simard & Kent D. Messer & Lota D. Tamini & Harry M. Kaiser, 2008. "An Experimental Analysis of Modifications to the Centralized Milk Quota Exchange System in Quebec," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 56(3), pages 295-312, September.
    18. Pasquariello, Paolo & Vega, Clara, 2009. "The on-the-run liquidity phenomenon," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-24, April.
    19. Goldreich, David, 2003. "Underpricing in Discriminatory and Uniform-Price Treasury Auctions," CEPR Discussion Papers 4105, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Kjell G. Nyborg, 2004. "Multiple Unit Auctions and Short Squeezes," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 545-580.
    21. Song, Zhaogang & Zhu, Haoxiang, 2014. "QE Auctions of Treasury Bonds," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Maurice Doyon & Lota Dabio Tamini & Virginie Simard & Kent Messer & Harry M. Kaiser, 2006. "L'économie expérimentale pour l'analyse de modifications au système centralisé de vente du quota laitier au Québec," CIRANO Working Papers 2006s-23, CIRANO.

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