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Seasonality in Daily Bond Returns

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  • Jordan, Susan D.
  • Jordan, Bradford D.

Abstract

This paper tests for seasonal patterns in corporate bond returns using the Dow Jones Composite Bond Average. Each seasonal pattern documented for equities is investigated. For the period 1963–1986, corporate bond returns exhibit January, turn-of-the-year, and weekof-the-month effects, but no significant day-of-the-week or turn-of-the-month effects. In contrast, for the S&P 500 stock index, the turn-of-the-month and day-of-the-week effects are highly significant, but the week-of-the-month effect is less significant, and the January and turn-of-the-year effects are insignificant. The behavior of an equity index constructed using companies in the bond index is similar to that of the S&P, except the turn-of-the-year effect is significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Jordan, Susan D. & Jordan, Bradford D., 1991. "Seasonality in Daily Bond Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(02), pages 269-285, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:26:y:1991:i:02:p:269-285_00
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1986. "Large Shareholders and Corporate Control," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 461-488, June.
    2. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1988. "Corporate control contests and capital structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-2), pages 55-86, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Athanassakos, George & Tian, Yisong Sam, 1998. "Seasonality in Canadian treasury bond returns: An institutional explanation," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 65-86.
    2. Qadan, Mahmoud & Kliger, Doron, 2016. "The short trading day anomaly," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, pages 62-80.
    3. Christopher J. Neely & Drew B. Winters, 2005. "Year-end seasonality in one-month LIBOR derivatives," Working Papers 2003-040, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Jalonen, Einari & Vähämaa, Sami & Äijö, Janne, 2010. "Turn-of-the-month and intramonth effects in government bond markets: Is there a role for macroeconomic news?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, pages 75-81.
    5. Duong T Le, 2015. "Ex-ante Determinants of Volatility in the Crude Oil Market," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 6(1), pages 1-13, January.
    6. Al-Khazali, Osamah M., 2001. "Does the January effect exist in high-yield bond market?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 71-80.
    7. Stephen Keef & Melvin Roush, 2004. "Day-of-the-week effects: New Zealand bank bills, 1985-2000," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 859-873.
    8. Dbouk, Wassim & Jamali, Ibrahim & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2013. "The January effect for individual corporate bonds," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 69-77.
    9. Sergio Zúñiga J., 2001. "Seasonal Effects and Volume-yield Relationship in the Central Bank Indexed Promissory Notes," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 4(1), pages 5-24, April.
    10. Nippani, Srinivas & Arize, Augustine C., 2008. "U.S. corporate bond returns: A study of market anomalies based on broad industry groups," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 157-171, August.
    11. Kohers, Theodor & Patel, Jayen B., 1996. "An examination of the day-of-the-week effect in junk bond returns over business cycles," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-46.
    12. Liano, Kartono & Kelly, G. Wayne, 1995. "Currency futures and the turn-of-month effect," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 1-7.
    13. Seungmoon Choi, 2011. "Closed-Form Likelihood Expansions for Multivariate Time-Inhomogeneous Diffusions," School of Economics Working Papers 2011-26, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
    14. Keef, Stephen P. & Khaled, Mohammed & Zhu, Hui, 2009. "The dynamics of the Monday effect in international stock indices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 125-133, June.
    15. Jonathan Wiley & Leonard Zumpano, 2009. "Institutional Investment and the Turn-of-the-Month Effect: Evidence from REITs," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 180-201, August.
    16. Kenneth Washer & Srinivas Nippani & John Wingender, 2011. "Day-of-the-week effect in the Canadian money market," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(9), pages 855-866, August.
    17. repec:blg:journl:v:12:y:2017:i:1:p:95-109 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Kunkel, Robert A. & Compton, William S. & Beyer, Scott, 2003. "The turn-of-the-month effect still lives: the international evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 207-221.
    19. Nippani, Srinivas & Pennathur, Anita K., 2004. "Day-of-the-week effects in commercial paper yield rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 508-520, September.
    20. Mark Griffiths & Drew Winters, 1997. "On a Preferred Habitat for Liquidity at the Turn-of-the-Year: Evidence from the Term-Repo Market," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 12(1), pages 21-38, August.
    21. Aggarwal, Raj & Schatzberg, John D., 1997. "Day of the week effects, information seasonality, and higher moments of security returns," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, pages 1-20.
    22. Zunino, Luciano & Fernández Bariviera, Aurelio & Guercio, M. Belén & Martinez, Lisana B. & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2012. "On the efficiency of sovereign bond markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(18), pages 4342-4349.

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