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Production Dynamics and Disruption Responses in the Pork Supply Chain: A Structural Model of Hog and Pig Markets

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  • Butcher, Ezra
  • Schulz, Lee

Abstract

Analysis of feeder and early weaned pig markets, important segments in pork production, is nearly nonexistent. We derive and estimate a structural econometric model relating demand and supply for market hogs, feeder pigs, and early weaned pigs. Estimates from the econometric model predict how disruptions are transmitted through hog and pig markets. Results indicate that hog and pig markets are most sensitive to hog processing plant utilization relative to capacity and that this sensitivity has increased compared to prior estimates. A set of counterfactual scenarios quantify the effects of shocks to hog processing capacity, wholesale pork demand, and supply response.

Suggested Citation

  • Butcher, Ezra & Schulz, Lee, 2025. "Production Dynamics and Disruption Responses in the Pork Supply Chain: A Structural Model of Hog and Pig Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(4), pages 633-655, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:57:y:2025:i:4:p:633-655_6
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