IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/jagaec/v56y2024i3p496-527_9.html

Are USDA Forecasts Optimal? A Systematic Review

Author

Listed:
  • Isengildina Massa, Olga
  • Karali, Berna
  • Irwin, Scott H.

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to systematically review the literature on United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast evaluation and critically assess their methods and findings. The fundamental characteristics of optimal forecasts are bias, accuracy and efficiency as well as encompassing and informativeness. This review revealed that the findings of these studies can be very different based on the forecasts examined, commodity, sample period, and methodology. Some forecasts performed very well, while others were not very reliable, resulting in forecast specific optimality record. We discuss methodological and empirical contributions of these studies as well as their shortcomings and potential opportunities for future work.

Suggested Citation

  • Isengildina Massa, Olga & Karali, Berna & Irwin, Scott H., 2024. "Are USDA Forecasts Optimal? A Systematic Review," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(3), pages 496-527, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:56:y:2024:i:3:p:496-527_9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S107407082400018X/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:56:y:2024:i:3:p:496-527_9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/aae .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.