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Bankers’ Forecasts Of Farmland Values: A Qualitative And Quantitative Evaluation

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  • KUETHE, TODD H.
  • HUBBS, TODD

Abstract

This study evaluates the farmland price forecasts provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's Land Values and Credit Conditions Survey from 1991: quarter 1 (Q1) through 2016: Q1. Prior studies have demonstrated that similar surveys of agricultural bankers provide accurate predictions of the direction of future farm real estate values through qualitative forecast evaluation. This study extends the existing knowledge base by converting the qualitative responses to quantitative expectations. The quantified expectations are then subjected to additional forecast optimality tests, which suggest that the forecasts are unbiased but inefficient.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuethe, Todd H. & Hubbs, Todd, 2017. "Bankers’ Forecasts Of Farmland Values: A Qualitative And Quantitative Evaluation," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 617-633, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:49:y:2017:i:04:p:617-633_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Fiechter, Chad M. & Kuethe, Todd H. & Zhang, Wendong, 2022. "Information Rigidities in Farmland Value Expectations," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322070, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Fiechter, Chad & Kuethe, Todd, 2021. "Agricultural Lenders and Farmland Appraisers Disagreement on Farmland Value Expectations," 2021 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition (Virtual Meeting), October 6-7, 2021 316031, Regional Research Committee NC-1177 (formerly NC-1014): Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    3. Fiechter, Chad & Kuethe, Todd & Zhang, Wendong, 2023. "Information Rigidities and Farmland Value Expectations," ISU General Staff Papers 202306131414240000, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Fiechter, Chad M., 2023. "Farmland Value Expectations and Learning," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335505, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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