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Latent Variable Nonparametric Cointegrating Regression

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  • Wang, Qiying
  • Phillips, Peter C.B.
  • Kasparis, Ioannis

Abstract

This article studies the asymptotic properties of empirical nonparametric regressions that partially misspecify the relationships between nonstationary variables. In particular, we analyze nonparametric kernel regressions in which a potential nonlinear cointegrating regression is misspecified through the use of a proxy regressor in place of the true regressor. Such models occur in linear and nonlinear regressions where the regressor suffers from measurement error or where the true regressor is a latent or filtered variable as in mixed-data-sampling. The treatment allows for endogenous regressors as the latent variable and proxy variables that cointegrate asymptotically with the true latent variable, including correctly specified as well as misspecified systems, and is therefore intermediate between nonlinear nonparametric cointegrating regression and completely spurious nonparametric nonstationary regression. The results relate to recent work on dynamic misspecification in nonparametric nonstationary systems and the limit theory accommodates regressor variables with autoregressive roots that are local to unity and whose errors are driven by long memory and short memory innovations, thereby encompassing applications with a wide range of economic and financial time series. Some implications for forecasting under misspecification are also examined.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Qiying & Phillips, Peter C.B. & Kasparis, Ioannis, 2021. "Latent Variable Nonparametric Cointegrating Regression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 138-168, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:37:y:2021:i:1:p:138-168_4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kasparis, Ioannis & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2012. "Dynamic misspecification in nonparametric cointegrating regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(2), pages 270-284.
    2. Wang, Qiying & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2009. "Asymptotic Theory For Local Time Density Estimation And Nonparametric Cointegrating Regression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 710-738, June.
    3. Qiying Wang & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2009. "Structural Nonparametric Cointegrating Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(6), pages 1901-1948, November.
    4. P. Jeganathan, 2008. "Limit Theorems for Functionals of Sums that Converge to Fractional Brownian and Stable Motions," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1649, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    5. Karun Adusumilli & Taisuke Otsu, 2015. "Nonparametric instrumental regression with errors in variables," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2015/585, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    6. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
    7. Schennach, Susanne M., 2004. "Nonparametric Regression In The Presence Of Measurement Error," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(6), pages 1046-1093, December.
    8. Adusumilli, Karun & Otsu, Taisuke, 2018. "Nonparametric Instrumental Regression With Errors In Variables," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(6), pages 1256-1280, December.
    9. Wang, Qiying & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2011. "Asymptotic Theory For Zero Energy Functionals With Nonparametric Regression Applications," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 235-259, April.
    10. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    11. Wang, Qiying & Phillips, Peter C. B., 2016. "Nonparametric Cointegrating Regression With Endogeneity And Long Memory," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(2), pages 359-401, April.
    12. Wang, Qiying & Lin, Yan-Xia & Gulati, Chandra M., 2003. "Asymptotics For General Fractionally Integrated Processes With Applications To Unit Root Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 143-164, February.
    13. Wang, Qiying, 2014. "Martingale Limit Theorem Revisited And Nonlinear Cointegrating Regression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(3), pages 509-535, June.
    14. Joel L. Horowitz, 2011. "Applied Nonparametric Instrumental Variables Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(2), pages 347-394, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Qiying Wang & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2022. "A General Limit Theory for Nonlinear Functionals of Nonstationary Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2337, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Qiying Wang & Peter C. B. Phillips & Ying Wang, 2023. "New asymptotics applied to functional coefficient regression and climate sensitivity analysis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2365, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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