Assessing policies to mitigate abandonment of shade-grown coffee production in forest systems amid low and uncertain prices

Low and highly variable prices plague the coffee market, generating concerns that coffee farmers producing in shade systems under natural forests, as in biodiversity hotspot Oaxaca, Mexico, will abandon production and contribute to deforestation and reduced ecosystem services. Using stakeholder information, we build a setting-informed model to analyze farmers' decisions to abandon shade-grown coffee production and their reactions to policy to reduce abandonment. Exploring price premiums for bird-friendly certified coffee, payments for ecosystem services, and price floors as policies, we find that once a farmer is on the path toward abandonment, it is difficult to reverse. However, implementing policies early that are low cost to farmers – price floors and no-cost certification programs – can stem abandonment. Considering the abandonment that policy avoids per dollar spent, price floors are the most cost-effective policy, yet governments prefer certification programs that push costs onto international coffee consumers who pay the price premium.