Population Growth, Employment, And Livelihoods: The Triple Challenge

Over the next 35 years, the total population of sub-Saharan Africa is projected to increase by 118%, with a greater rise of of 156% of people in the prime working ages. To cope with population growth and exploit the slowly unfolding, favorable change in age structure, countries face a triple challenge. Agricultural productivity has to improve. Prospects are good, though climate change remains a threat. Manufacturing jobs need to be created on a far larger scale than hitherto. Success is uncertain because much depends on foreign investors and the actions of competing low-wage countries in Asia. The third challenge concerns the non-agricultural informal sector, which, even under optimistic assumptions about manufacturing, will continue to provide livelihoods for a large segment of the population. Entrepreneurship needs to be encouraged so that an increasing proportion of family enterprises evolve into larger businesses. There is no blueprint to achieve this evolution and much will depend on the hard work and ingenuity of individuals.