Modelling climate-related mortality and morbidity risks in the UK: insights from a practitioner survey

This paper presents the results of a targeted survey conducted among UK pension consultancies, insurers and reinsurers to explore current actuarial practices and challenges in modelling the impact on mortality and morbidity of climate perils. The responses reveal several recurring themes, including varying degrees of climate risk integration, plus significant data and methodological limitations. This is against a background of growing regulatory and stakeholder pressure to incorporate climate considerations into actuarial models. While a small number of organisations have made substantive progress, many are at a preliminary stage, relying primarily on qualitative or scenario-based approaches. Respondents identified a pressing need for standardised methodologies, improved data sources and practical guidance to support consistent and credible modelling. The findings highlight a clear need for profession-led guidance, improved access to climate-health data and practical frameworks to support the consistent integration of climate-related mortality and morbidity risks into actuarial work. Respondents expressed strong support for collaborative development of standardised scenarios, illustrative modelling approaches and case studies to bridge the gap between public-health research and actuarial application. The paper concludes with practical recommendations for practitioners and identifies priority areas for future research and professional guidance.