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Modeling Longevity Risk With Generalized Dynamic Factor Models And Vine-Copulae

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  • Chuliá, Helena
  • Guillén, Montserrat
  • Uribe, Jorge M.

Abstract

We present a methodology to forecast mortality rates and estimate longevity and mortality risks. The methodology uses generalized dynamic factor models fitted to the differences in the log-mortality rates. We compare their prediction performance with that of models previously described in the literature, including the traditional static factor model fitted to log-mortality rates. We also construct risk measures using vine-copula simulations, which take into account the dependence between the idiosyncratic components of the mortality rates. The methodology is applied to forecast mortality rates for a population portfolio for the UK and to estimate longevity and mortality risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Chuliá, Helena & Guillén, Montserrat & Uribe, Jorge M., 2016. "Modeling Longevity Risk With Generalized Dynamic Factor Models And Vine-Copulae," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(1), pages 165-190, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:astinb:v:46:y:2016:i:01:p:165-190_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhou, Rui & Ji, Min, 2021. "Modelling mortality dependence: An application of dynamic vine copula," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 241-255.
    2. Jorge M. Uribe & Helena Chuliá & Montserrat Guillen, 2018. "Trends in the Quantiles of the Life Table Survivorship Function," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 34(5), pages 793-817, December.

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