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Untangling Neural Nets

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  • DE MARCHI, SCOTT
  • GELPI, CHRISTOPHER
  • GRYNAVISKI, JEFFREY D.

Abstract

Beck, King, and Zeng (2000) offer both a sweeping critique of the quantitative security studies field and a bold new direction for future research. Despite important strengths in their work, we take issue with three aspects of their research: (1) the substance of the logit model they compare to their neural network, (2) the standards they use for assessing forecasts, and (3) the theoretical and model-building implications of the nonparametric approach represented by neural networks. We replicate and extend their analysis by estimating a more complete logit model and comparing it both to a neural network and to a linear discriminant analysis. Our work reveals that neural networks do not perform substantially better than either the logit or the linear discriminant estimators. Given this result, we argue that more traditional approaches should be relied upon due to their enhanced ability to test hypotheses.

Suggested Citation

  • De Marchi, Scott & Gelpi, Christopher & Grynaviski, Jeffrey D., 2004. "Untangling Neural Nets," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 98(2), pages 371-378, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:98:y:2004:i:02:p:371-378_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher Gelpi & Nazli Avdan, 2018. "Democracies at risk? A forecasting analysis of regime type and the risk of terrorist attack," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(1), pages 18-42, January.
    2. Phil Henrickson, 2020. "Predicting the costs of war," The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, , vol. 17(3), pages 285-308, July.
    3. Nicholas J Shallcross & Darryl K Ahner, 2020. "Predictive models of world conflict: accounting for regional and conflict-state differences," The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, , vol. 17(3), pages 243-267, July.
    4. George W Williford & Douglas B Atkinson, 2020. "A Bayesian forecasting model of international conflict," The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, , vol. 17(3), pages 235-242, July.
    5. Faruk Balli & Hatice Ozer Balli & Mudassar Hasan & Russell Gregory-Allen, 2022. "Geopolitical risk spillovers and its determinants," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 68(2), pages 463-500, April.

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