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The Carryover Effect in Presidential Elections

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  • Stone, Walter J.

Abstract

The carryover hypothesis asserts that participants' candidate support behavior in the general election is affected by their preferences for their party's nomination. This paper examines data from activist and national sample surveys for evidence of a carryover effect in the 1980 election. There is a detectable carryover effect on voting behavior both for activists and for citizens generally. Among activists, where evidence about candidate support behaviors beyond voting is available, the effect on such activity is substantial, and increases with the effort associated with the general election activity in question.

Suggested Citation

  • Stone, Walter J., 1986. "The Carryover Effect in Presidential Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 80(1), pages 271-279, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:80:y:1986:i:01:p:271-279_18
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    Cited by:

    1. Stambough, Stephen J. & Thorson, Gregory R., 1999. "Toward stability in presidential forecasting: the development of a multiple indicator model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 143-152, April.
    2. Alexandra L. Cooper, 2002. "The Effective Length of the Presidential Primary Season," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 14(1), pages 71-92, January.

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