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The Decider's Dilemma: Leader Culpability, War Outcomes, and Domestic Punishment

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  • CROCO, SARAH E.

Abstract

A leader's culpability for involving his state in a conflict affects both his war termination calculus and his domestic audience's willingness to punish him if he loses. I define a culpable leader as any leader who either presides over the beginning of a war, or comes to power midwar and shares a political connection with a culpable predecessor. Using a data set created specifically for this study, I find that culpable leaders are more likely than nonculpable ones to achieve favorable war outcomes. I also find that domestic audiences will be willing to punish culpable leaders who lose, yet spare nonculpable leaders who do the same. Taken together, my findings underscore the need to appreciate more fully the role individual leaders play in bringing their states to war.

Suggested Citation

  • Croco, Sarah E., 2011. "The Decider's Dilemma: Leader Culpability, War Outcomes, and Domestic Punishment," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 105(3), pages 457-477, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:105:y:2011:i:03:p:457-477_00
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    2. Vanden Eynde, Oliver & Fetzer, Thiemo & Souza, Pedro CL & Wright, Austin L., 2021. "Losing on the Home Front? Battlefield Casualties, Media, and Public Support for Foreign Interventions," CEPR Discussion Papers 16102, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Jeffrey Pickering & Emizet F. Kisangani, 2014. "Foreign military intervention and post-colonial state-building: An actor-centric analysis," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(3), pages 244-264, July.
    4. Michael C. Horowitz & Matthew Fuhrmann, 2018. "Studying Leaders and Military Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 62(10), pages 2072-2086, November.
    5. Jun Koga Sudduth, 2021. "Who Punishes the Leader? Leader Culpability and Coups during Civil War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 65(2-3), pages 427-452, February.
    6. Copelovitch, Mark & Rickard, Stephanie, 2021. "Partisan technocrats: how leaders matter in international organizations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112215, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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    8. Christopher Gelpi, 2017. "Democracies in Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 61(9), pages 1925-1949, October.
    9. Bradley C. Smith & William Spaniel, 2019. "Militarized Disputes, Uncertainty, and Leader Tenure," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(5), pages 1222-1252, May.
    10. Adam, Antonis & Tsavou, Evi, 2020. "One strike and you’re out! Dictators’ fate in the aftermath of terrorism," MPRA Paper 103772, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2020.
    11. Milos Popovic, 2022. "Strongmen cry too: The effect of aerial bombing on voting for the incumbent in competitive autocracies," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(6), pages 844-859, November.
    12. Thomas Gift & Daniel Krcmaric, 2017. "Who Democratizes? Western-educated Leaders and Regime Transitions," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 61(3), pages 671-701, March.
    13. Marius Mehrl & Tobias Böhmelt, 2021. "How mediator leadership transitions influence mediation effectiveness," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 38(1), pages 45-62, January.
    14. Dan Reiter & Allan C. Stam & Michael C. Horowitz, 2016. "A Revised Look at Interstate Wars, 1816–2007," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 60(5), pages 956-976, August.
    15. Jeff Carter, 2017. "The Political Cost of War Mobilization in Democracies and Dictatorships," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 61(8), pages 1768-1794, September.
    16. Eric Min, 2022. "Painful Words: The Effect of Battlefield Activity on Conflict Negotiation Behavior," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 66(4-5), pages 595-622, May.
    17. Kirssa Cline Ryckman & Jessica Maves Braithwaite, 2020. "Changing horses in midstream: Leadership changes and the civil war peace process," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(1), pages 83-105, January.
    18. Amanda A Licht, 2022. "Introducing Regular Turnover Details, 1960–2015: A dataset on world leaders’ legal removal from office," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(2), pages 277-285, March.
    19. Casper Sakstrup, 2021. "What’s going on next door? Irregular leader change in neighboring countries, uncertainty, and civil war," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(3), pages 539-553, May.
    20. Suparna Chaudhry & Sabrina Karim & Matt K Scroggs, 2021. "How leaders’ experiences and rebellion shape military recruitment during civil war," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(5), pages 915-929, September.
    21. Alyssa K. Prorok, 2018. "Led Astray," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 62(6), pages 1179-1204, July.
    22. Alex Weisiger, 2014. "Victory without peace: Conquest, insurgency, and war termination," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(4), pages 357-382, September.
    23. Elizabeth N. Saunders, 2018. "Leaders, Advisers, and the Political Origins of Elite Support for War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 62(10), pages 2118-2149, November.
    24. Matthew Hauenstein, 2020. "The conditional effect of audiences on credibility," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(3), pages 422-436, May.
    25. Matthew Fuhrmann, 2020. "When Do Leaders Free‐Ride? Business Experience and Contributions to Collective Defense," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(2), pages 416-431, April.

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