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Aggregate: fast, accurate, and flexible approximation of compound probability distributions

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  • Mildenhall, Stephen

Abstract

Aggregate implements an efficient fast Fourier transform (FFT)-based algorithm to approximate compound probability distributions. Leveraging FFT-based methods offers advantages over recursion and simulation-based approaches, providing speed and accuracy to otherwise time-consuming calculations. Combining user-friendly features and an expressive domain-specific language called DecL, Aggregate enables practitioners and nonprogrammers to work with complex distributions effortlessly. The software verifies the accuracy of its FFT-based numerical approximations by comparing their first three moments to those calculated analytically from the specified frequency and severity. This moment-based validation, combined with carefully chosen default parameters, allows users without in-depth knowledge of the underlying algorithm to be confident in the results. Aggregate supports a wide range of frequency and severity distributions, policy limits and deductibles, and reinsurance structures and has applications in pricing, reserving, risk management, teaching, and research. It is written in Python.

Suggested Citation

  • Mildenhall, Stephen, 2025. "Aggregate: fast, accurate, and flexible approximation of compound probability distributions," Annals of Actuarial Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 193-232, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:anacsi:v:19:y:2025:i:2:p:193-232_1
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