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Gyrations in African Mortality and Their Effect on Economic Growth

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  • David N. Weil

    (Brown University, Department of Economics and NBER)

Abstract

I examine recent changes in African mortality and discuss their potential economic and demographic effects. Growth in life expectancy sharply departed from its trend after 1990, and then experienced a sharp acceleration after 2005. This latter acceleration was due overwhelmingly to improvements in HIV and malaria. Economists differ in their estimates of how large the structural effect of health on income is, with many estimates being relatively small. Taking seriously the delays built into many plausible causal channels would lead one to expect that any economic effects of these mortality changes, if they are detectable at all, will not appear for several decades. By contrast, the effect of declining mortality, especially from malaria, should soon be visible in data on population age structure in some countries.

Suggested Citation

  • David N. Weil, 2017. "Gyrations in African Mortality and Their Effect on Economic Growth," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(1), pages 103-110, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvde:v:83:y:2017:i:1:p:103-110
    DOI: 10.1017/dem.2016.23
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    Cited by:

    1. Luca GORI & Enrico LUPI & Piero MANFREDI & Mauro SODINI, 2020. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Development and the Demographic Transition: Fertility Reversal under the HIV Epidemic," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(2), pages 125-155, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Africa; HIV; Malaria; Economic Growth;
    All these keywords.

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