Navigating Uncertainties: Analyzing Climate Programs Monitoring in Canada

Policy monitoring mechanisms are essential for evaluating the implementation and effectiveness of public climate programs. Despite the strategic importance of the information disclosed in monitoring documents, the factors affecting the credibility of these data are understudied. This article explores the complexities of measuring and monitoring public programs designed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Based on an analysis of 164 performance monitoring sheets and interviews with 30 program managers and sustainability specialists, the results highlight four main factors that could explain departments’ decisions not to assess the impact of different programs in terms of GHG reduction or implement imprecise performance indicators. These factors include the combined impact of programs, uncertainties in GHG measurement, the measurability of GHG reductions, and bureaucratic and administrative complexity. Comparing the practices of the various departments also revealed four attitudes toward measuring GHG emissions reductions: metrological realism, internal legitimacy, external legitimacy, and metrological skepticism. This analysis helped to identify the underestimated challenges of climate performance measurability in the public sphere, suggesting that addressing these challenges requires a multi-faceted approach. Public decision-makers need to review the methods used to assess the effectiveness of public programs and encourage multi-stakeholder collaboration to improve the predictability of impacts and the development of context-specific measurement models for GHG reduction.