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Explaining Declining Social Assistance Participation Rates: A Longitudinal Analysis of Manitoba Administrative and Population Data

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  • Harvey Stevens
  • Wayne Simpson
  • Sid Frankel

Abstract

This paper extends analyses of the declining social assistance participation rate in Canada since the mid-1990s using rich Manitoba administrative data for the period since 1999. We examine trends in Manitoba to mid-2008, separately analyze the entry and continuation rates, and include for the first time information about the growing number of adults with a disability on social assistance. Our results show that the declining participation rate is due entirely to a declining entry rate and that the continuation rate has actually risen since 1999, mainly because of the dramatic growth in the number of adults with a disability on social assistance but also because of the rising duration of spells on assistance by those without a disability. Our results raise questions about the policy, pursued in all jurisdictions in Canada, that keeps social assistance benefits low to discourage welfare use.

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  • Harvey Stevens & Wayne Simpson & Sid Frankel, 2011. "Explaining Declining Social Assistance Participation Rates: A Longitudinal Analysis of Manitoba Administrative and Population Data," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 37(2), pages 163-181, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpp:issued:v:37:y:2011:i:2:p:163-181
    DOI: 10.3138/cpp.37.2.163
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