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Oportunidades de desarrollo económico en el posconflicto: propuesta de política

Author

Listed:
  • Ana María Ibánez L.
  • Christian Jaramillo H.

Abstract

El objetivo de este artículo es explorar el impacto del conflicto armado sobre la economía Colombiana. Para alcanzar este objetivo, se desarrolla un modelo macroeconómico con fundamentos microeconómicos que estima el impacto del conflicto e incorpora la evidencia microeconómica disponible. El artículo simula posibles escenarios de posconflicto y examina el impacto de cada escenario sobre la economía Colombiana. Al basarse en evidencia microeconómica, el modelo identifica cómo los costos del conflicto se transmiten a la economía, cuáles costos tienen un mayor impacto y cuáles son las políticas públicas más efectivas para mitigarlos. El modelo también permite identificar las mejores estrategias para reducir la violencia y promover de manera paralela un desarrollo económico sostenible. El artículo concluye que, si bien las políticas de compensación propuestas son fiscalmente viables, una política de posconflicto adecuada debe complementarse con políticas sociales proactivas. Cuando el posconflicto no se acompana de políticas sociales proactivas, la producción económica no se beneficia.

Suggested Citation

  • Ana María Ibánez L. & Christian Jaramillo H., 2006. "Oportunidades de desarrollo económico en el posconflicto: propuesta de política," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000438:013352
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11445/952
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jiménez Giraldo, Dora Elena & Saldarriaga-Isaza, Adrián & Cicowiez, Martin, 2019. "Distributional and economy-wide effects of post-conflict policy in Colombia," Conference papers 333124, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Rettberg, Angelika, 2013. "Peace is Better Business, and Business Makes Better Peace: The Role of the Private Sector in Colombian Peace Processes," GIGA Working Papers 240, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    3. Juan Pablo Castilla, 2020. "To Kill a Black Swan: The Credibility Revolution at CEDE, 2000-2018," Documentos CEDE 18366, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    4. Milton Fernando Montoya Pardo, 2020. "Temas de Derecho Minero-Energético. Colección de Regulación Minera y Energética No. 14," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Derecho, number 1266, march.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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