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The Effect of Police on Crime: Evidence from the 2014 World Cup in Sao Paulo

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  • Ilaria Masiero

Abstract

I estimate the causal impact of police on crime, based on evidence from Brazil. To tackle reverse causality, I consider as a natural experiment the creation of a special police unit to intensify surveillance around a few tournament-related locations in Sao Paulo during the 2014 FIFA World Cup. To better isolate the specific impact of policing, I account for different ways in which the tournament may affect crime, namely, via fan concentration and voluntary incapacitation. Difference-in-differences estimates reveal that increased police presence leads to significant reductions in criminal activity. My estimate of the crime-police elasticity (−0.37) is close to figures obtained in previous studies, suggesting that this effect is robust across settings and remains stable even in a high-crime, weak-institutions context, as in the case of Brazil.

Suggested Citation

  • Ilaria Masiero, 2021. "The Effect of Police on Crime: Evidence from the 2014 World Cup in Sao Paulo," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2020), pages 46-72, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000425:019764
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Police; crime; Brazil; natural experiment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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