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Vulnerabilidades macroeconómicas ante la transición baja en carbono para Colombia

Author

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  • Gustavo Adolfo Hernández Díaz

    (Departamento Nacional de Planeación)

Abstract

La implementación de la transición hacia una economía baja en carbono conlleva una transformación estructural que implica, a su vez, la contracción o reconversión de los sectores con elevadas emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, así como el estímulo de actividades económicas menos contaminantes. Este proceso genera diversas vulnerabilidades macroeconómicas para la economía. El análisis que se presenta a continuación explora tres de estas vulnerabilidades, con lo cual se identificó que (a) la asociada al sector externo reviste una alta magnitud, debido a la significativa dependencia de los sectores extractivos; (b) la concerniente al sector fiscal es de menor escala, si bien se incrementa ante la necesidad de mayor esfuerzo fiscal para financiar la reducción de la inversión, resultante de la disminución de las regalías; y (c) en el ámbito socioeconómico, la elevada tasa de informalidad laboral en Colombia representa un desafío para la absorción del impacto sobre el mercado de trabajo.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustavo Adolfo Hernández Díaz, 2025. "Vulnerabilidades macroeconómicas ante la transición baja en carbono para Colombia," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, vol. 100(5), pages 97-119.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000090:021493
    DOI: 10.13043/DYS.100.5
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    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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