Populist Parties, Female Populist Leaders, and the Gendered Vote in Germany

Studying the relationship between gender and populist voting is challenging because few electoral contexts allow for a direct comparison of relevant populist parties from different ideological camps under shared structural conditions. The 2025 German federal election provides a rare case: two ideologically distinct populist parties, both led by prominent female leaders, competed nationally. Alice Weidel headed the radical-right AfD, while Sahra Wagenknecht led the left-authoritarian BSW. Although both parties are headed by women and use populist appeals, their gendered electorates differ sharply: the AfD is supported disproportionately by men, whereas the BSW draws a larger share of female voters. Because the two parties operate in the same electoral and institutional environment, this case lets us isolate the roles of general issue preferences and gender‑related attitudes in shaping gendered divides in populist voting, without the confounding influence of differing opportunity structures or leadership gender effects. Using data from the German Longitudinal Election Study, we analyze propensity-to-vote scores for both parties. The results show that the gender gap persists in baseline models but disappears once respondents’ attitudes toward gender‑related issues are introduced, indicating that such policy preferences systematically structure gendered voting. Mediation analysis confirms that the initial gender gap operates through these gender‑related attitudes. Although leader evaluations are strong predictors of overall party support, they do not account for the gender gap. Together, these results underscore the central role of gendered policy orientations in structuring populist vote choice, highlighting how issue positions, leadership cues, and gender-related attitudes jointly shape gendered electoral behavior.