Justice in the Energy Transition: State Capacity and the Politics of Critical Infrastructure in Nigeria

Energy transitions in resource-dependent states are governance problems as well as technical ones. This article examines how Nigeria’s Mission 300 National Energy Compact and its updated Nationally Determined Contribution 3.0 conceptualise and operationalise justice, and how domestic dynamics shape whether justice is delivered. Drawing on energy justice scholarship, the political economy of rentier states, and the literature on state capacity, the article argues that the two programmes are best understood as products of different institutional lineages: one rooted in electricity-sector reform and investor-oriented stabilisation, the other in climate governance and vulnerability discourse. Using a comparative reading of both policy documents alongside governance and sector data, the analysis shows that both programmes only articulate justice rather than institutionalise it. Mission 300 prioritises grid reinforcement, loss reduction, metering, subsidy reform, and private-sector mobilisation, while offering few mechanisms for affordability, participation, or the protection of vulnerable groups. Nationally Determined Contribution 3.0 recognises gendered burdens, spatial inequality, and climate vulnerability, but provides limited instruments to embed these concerns in electricity-sector reform. The article concludes that Nigeria’s transition produces injustice not by design but through an inherited and fragmented governance structure. Addressing it requires treating justice as a design constraint, building coordination across federal and state government, and sequencing reform so households experience benefits alongside costs rather than long after them.