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Abstention and Populist Voting: Evidence From the Italian 2018 Election

Author

Listed:
  • Lucia Dalla Pellegrina

    (Department of Economics, Management, and Statistics, University of Milano‐Bicocca, Italy / CISEPS, University of Milano‐Bicocca, Italy)

  • Giorgio Di Maio

    (Department of Economics, University of Insubria, Italy)

  • Mario Gilli

    (Department of Economics, Management, and Statistics, University of Milano‐Bicocca, Italy)

Abstract

The 2018 election in Italy produced a highly fragmented outcome with a “tripolar” structure: mainstream forces were sharply weakened, while the Five Star Movement (left-wing) and The League (right-wing), two populist parties with different political agendas but similar anti-establishment postures, captured unprecedented levels of support. This configuration highlights a theoretical tension regarding disaffection towards the voting mechanism: similar underlying grievances can lead to either abstention or support for right- and left-wing populist parties. In 2018, in Italy, these three responses were available simultaneously, a unique case. This article examines the determinants of abstention and populist voting in Italy’s 2018 general election. Using provincial (NUTS 3) data from 2008, 2013, and 2018, we employ a combination of factor and regression analysis to describe the underlying causes of populist voting and abstention. Our results show that abstention was higher in provinces characterized by crime, insecurity, and weak governance, while populist parties thrived in economically fragile areas. This contrasts with the stronger performance of mainstream parties in more prosperous regions. Overall, our findings suggest that both abstention and populist voting reflect enduring socio-territorial inequalities and institutional fragility. This implies that reducing regional disparities and strengthening state capacity are key conditions for addressing persistent patterns of electoral disengagement.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucia Dalla Pellegrina & Giorgio Di Maio & Mario Gilli, 2026. "Abstention and Populist Voting: Evidence From the Italian 2018 Election," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 14.
    • Handle: RePEc:cog:poango:v14:y:2026:a:11674
    DOI: 10.17645/pag.11674
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jackman, Robert W., 1987. "Political Institutions and Voter Turnout in the Industrial Democracies," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(2), pages 405-423, June.
    2. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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