Progressive Incrementalism: U.S. Foreign Economic Policy Over the Next Four Years

As we look ahead following last year’s U.S. presidential and congressional elections, Canadians — and Canadian business in particular — will want to have a better sense of the economic prospects, as well as the context, of U.S. foreign economic policy over the coming half-decade or so. For, notwithstanding all the talk, debates, op-ed articles, think-tank-pieces and even books in recent years suggesting or asserting the decline of American economic power, Canada’s ever-present integration and interdependence with our southern neighbour is both a reality and now, again, an important, medium-term asset. Over the coming four years and likely beyond, and once it has completed sorting out its “fiscal cliff” matter, the U.S. is positioned to be the source of increasing economic growth. The American economy has strengths: its high productivity and innovation compared to most other countries, massive piles of private sector cash leading to all sorts of investment potential, a devalued currency, and a relatively young workforce compared to the European Union, Japan, and even Canada. Therefore, although the U.S. economy continues to face large challenges related to fiscal imbalances, there are reasons to expect increasing economic growth over the medium term.