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Canadian Regional Cycles: The Quebec-Ontario Case Revisited


  • Jacques Raynauld


Canadian economists have devoted some attention to the study of regional cycles. In the Quebec-Ontario case, the "wid ening" hypothesis has emerged as the empirical consensus: this hypot hesis states that the gap between the two regional economies increase s in a recessionary period. This paper reexamines this question using recent data and Bayesian vector autoregression models. The results o btained (monthly data on total employment, 1966-84) do not support th e prevailing position. A U.S. recession rapidly and strongly affects the Ontario economy while the impact on Quebec is much weaker. Conseq uently, a recession narrows the gap between the two provinces.

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  • Jacques Raynauld, 1988. "Canadian Regional Cycles: The Quebec-Ontario Case Revisited," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 21(1), pages 115-128, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:21:y:1988:i:1:p:115-28

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Robin Boadway & Neil Bruce & Jack Mintz, 1984. "Taxation, Inflation, and the Effective Marginal Tax Rate on Capital in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(1), pages 62-79, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Todd Potts & David Yerger, 2010. "Variations Across Canadian Regions in the Sensitivity to U.S. Monetary Policy," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 38(4), pages 443-454, December.
    2. Faruk Balli & Syed Basher & Rosmy Jean Louis, 2012. "Channels of risk-sharing among Canadian provinces: 1961–2006," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 763-787, October.
    3. Racette, Daniel & Raynauld, Jacques & Lauzon, Simon, 1992. "La règle monétaire de McCallum revue à la lumière de la méthodologie de Litterman," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 68(1), pages 262-282, mars et j.

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