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Pays émergents : quelle protection face au risque de sudden stop ?

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Molteni
  • Camilo Umana Dajud

Abstract

Le nouveau cycle haussier du dollar, qui fait suite à la remontée des taux américains, expose les pays émergents, dont l’endettement en dollars a augmenté depuis la crise financière, à un risque de fuite massive de capitaux (sudden stop). Les réserves de change jouent un rôle essentiel pour corriger les déséquilibres extérieurs et stabiliser le taux de change. Or, leur niveau global a baissé et pourrait se révéler insuffisant pour protéger les pays émergents d’un tel risque. Dans un contexte où la coordination monétaire internationale reste faible, des mesures macro-prudentielles pour réduire l’endettement en devises étrangères des banques et des entreprises ainsi que des mesures de contrôle de capitaux ciblées et temporaires pourraient être envisagées ou renforcées. L’objectif est d’éviter l'occurrence de crises financières telles que celles des années 1990, qui ont affecté à la fois la stabilité du secteur bancaire et celle marché des changes (crises jumelles).

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Molteni & Camilo Umana Dajud, 2016. "Pays émergents : quelle protection face au risque de sudden stop ?," La Lettre du CEPII, CEPII research center, issue 368.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepill:2016-368
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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