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Couts et avantages de l'UEM pour le Royaume-Uni, le "cinquieme test"

  • Patrick Minford

L'adoption de l'euro presente plusieurs avantages, dont des couts de transaction plus faibles, la disparition du risque de change par rapport a l'euro et une plus grande transparence des prix. Toutefois, le premier argument est contredit par le cout eleve du changement, le deuxieme a des effets positifs limites du fait de la part elevee, pour le Royaume-Uni, des echanges en dollars par rapport auquel l'euro est tres instable ; enfin, le troisieme n'est pas vraiment pertinent car l'insularite limite beaucoup les possibilites d'arbitrage sur les prix. Les inconvenients sont de trois ordres : une plus grande instabilite macroeconomique due a la perte d'independance monetaire (des simulations stochastiques montrent que l'indicateur d'instabilite pourrait augmenter de 75%) ; les mesures d'harmonisation a prendre pour renforcer la symetrie ; et les inquietudes quant aux mesures qui seront prises pour renflouer les systemes publics de retraite.

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Article provided by CEPII research center in its journal Economie Internationale.

Volume (Year): (2002)
Issue (Month): 91 ()
Pages: 115-143

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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2002-3tf
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