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Theorie de la croissance et taux de change reel : une approche neoclassique

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  • Ignacio Briones
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    Partant des theories neoclassiques de la croissance, cet article presente un modele qui met en relation le taux de change reel avec la croissance economique et l'accumulation de capital humain et de capital physique. Outre les conclusions traditionnelles des modeles neoclassiques concernant la dynamique de convergence de la croissance economique, il montre que pour un pays ayant un deficit relatif en capital physique (situation qui caracterise les pays en voie de developpement), on s'attend aussi a observer une appreciation du taux de change reel. Cette evolution est d'autant plus marquee que le desequilibre initial dans la dotation relative en capital physique est important. Une analyse econometrique de panel permet de valider ces resultats tout en suggerant que l'approche du taux de change reel proposee ici est complementaire de celle des modeles bases sur des differentiels de productivite a la Balassa-Samuelson.

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    Article provided by CEPII research center in its journal Economie Internationale.

    Volume (Year): (2001)
    Issue (Month): 86 ()
    Pages: 49-75

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    Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2001-2tc
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