IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Choc des termes de l'echange et balance courante : Une estimation des effets de substitution en France (1972-1998)


  • Zoulfikar Mehoumoud Issop


L'objectif de cet article est d'evaluer les effets des chocs temporaires des termes de l'echange sur l'epargne privee et le compte courant de l'economie francaise. Dans un cadre intertemporel distinguant la consommation des agents selon trois types de biens (importables, exportables et non echangeables), une strategie d'estimation en deux etapes permet d'estimer les parametres structurels qui expliquent les fluctuations du solde courant. Les valeurs estimees des elasticites de substitution intratemporelles et intertemporelles de la consommation sont relativement faibles en France de sorte que les effets de substitution ne compensent pas les effets de lissage intertemporel de la consommation (effets revenus). Un choc temporaire defavorable et non anticipe des termes de l'echange conduit donc a une deterioration du compte courant de l'economie francaise.

Suggested Citation

  • Zoulfikar Mehoumoud Issop, 2001. "Choc des termes de l'echange et balance courante : Une estimation des effets de substitution en France (1972-1998)," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 86, pages 27-47.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2001-2tb

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. repec:cii:cepidt:1898-05 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2000. "Non-Europe: The magnitude and causes of market fragmentation in the EU," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 136(2), pages 284-314, June.
    3. Lionel Fontagné & Michaël Freudenberg & Nicolas Peridy, 1997. "Trade Patterns Inside the Single Market," Working Papers 1997-07, CEPII research center.
    4. Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 2002. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 281-316, April.
    5. Antoine Bouët, 2000. "La mesure des protections commerciales nationales," Working Papers 2000-15, CEPII research center.
    6. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-623, June.
    7. Guillaume Gaulier, 2001. "Discrimination commerciale : une mesure à partir des flux bilatéraux," Working Papers 2001-04, CEPII research center.
    8. Alan Deardorff, 1998. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Chapters,in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 7-32 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Antoine Bouët & Lionel Fontagné & Mondher Mimouni & Xavier Pichot, 2001. "Market Access Maps: A Bilateral and Disaggregated Measure of Market Access," Working Papers 2001-18, CEPII research center.
    10. Laird, S., 1996. "Quantifying Commercial Policies," Papers 96-001, Stanford - Institute for Thoretical Economics.
    11. Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 1997. "Measurement of Non-Tariff Barriers," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 179, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item


    Modele intertemporel de la balance courante; elasticites de substitution; lissage de la consommation;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2001-2tb. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.