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Choc des termes de l'echange et balance courante : Une estimation des effets de substitution en France (1972-1998)

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  • Zoulfikar Mehoumoud Issop

Abstract

L'objectif de cet article est d'evaluer les effets des chocs temporaires des termes de l'echange sur l'epargne privee et le compte courant de l'economie francaise. Dans un cadre intertemporel distinguant la consommation des agents selon trois types de biens (importables, exportables et non echangeables), une strategie d'estimation en deux etapes permet d'estimer les parametres structurels qui expliquent les fluctuations du solde courant. Les valeurs estimees des elasticites de substitution intratemporelles et intertemporelles de la consommation sont relativement faibles en France de sorte que les effets de substitution ne compensent pas les effets de lissage intertemporel de la consommation (effets revenus). Un choc temporaire defavorable et non anticipe des termes de l'echange conduit donc a une deterioration du compte courant de l'economie francaise.

Suggested Citation

  • Zoulfikar Mehoumoud Issop, 2001. "Choc des termes de l'echange et balance courante : Une estimation des effets de substitution en France (1972-1998)," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 86, pages 27-47.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2001-2tb
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    File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/IE/ei.asp?issue=86
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Modele intertemporel de la balance courante; elasticites de substitution; lissage de la consommation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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