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Deutschlandprognose 2014/2015: Konjunktur gewinnt an Schwung

Author

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

Die deutsche Wirtschaft gewinnt allmählich wieder an Schwung. In diesem und im kommenden Jahr dürfte das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt um jeweils 1,5 % zulegen. Getragen wird die Erholung vor allem durch die Binnenwirtschaft, die vom Rückgang der Rohölpreise profitiert. Die Investitionen in neue Anlagen dürften wieder stärker anziehen, die zunehmende Auslastung der Produktionskapazitäten macht Erweiterungsinvestitionen wieder dringlicher. Auch die Bauinvestitionen werden wieder zulegen. Der private Konsum wird im Tempo der steigenden Realeinkommen expandieren. Zwar werden die Exporte beschleunigt steigen, da sich die Weltkonjunktur bessert und die preisliche Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der deutschen Exportwirtschaft auf Drittmärkten aufgrund der Abwertung des Euro gegenüber dem US-Dollar zugenommen hat, stärker aber werden die Importe angesichts der erwarteten Binnenkonjunktur zulegen.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2015. "Deutschlandprognose 2014/2015: Konjunktur gewinnt an Schwung," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 22(01), pages 05-12, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:22:y:2015:i:01:p:05-12
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifoDD_15-01_05-12.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Lehmann & Joachim Ragnitz & Michael Weber, 2015. "ifo Konjunkturprognose Ostdeutschland und Sachsen 2014/2015: Ostdeutsche Wirtschaftfasst wieder Tritt," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 22(01), pages 13-20, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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