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Deutschlandprognose 2014/2015: Der Aufschwung geht weiter

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

Der Aufschwung in Deutschland setzt sich fort. In diesem Jahr dürfte das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt um 2,0 % und im kommenden Jahr um 2,2 % zulegen. Getragen wird der Aufschwung wie schon im ver - gangenen Jahr von der Binnenkonjunktur. Die Investitionen in neue Ausrüstungen werden beschleunigt expandieren, die hohe Auslastung der Produktionskapazitäten macht Ersatzbeschaffungen und Erweiterungsinvestitionen erforderlich. Auch die Bauinvestitionen werden weiter merklich steigen, hier wirken das Misstrauen gegenüber Auslandsanlagen und das niedrige Zinsniveau als Turbo. Der private Konsum dürfte im Tempo der steigenden Realeinkommen zunehmen. Die Exporte legen beschleunigt zu, da sich die Weltkonjunktur verbessert. Noch stärker aber werden die Importe aufgrund der hohen binnenwirtschaftlichen Dynamik steigen.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2014. "Deutschlandprognose 2014/2015: Der Aufschwung geht weiter," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(04), pages 03-10, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:21:y:2014:i:04:p:03-10
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifoDD_14-04_03-10.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Lehmann & Joachim Ragnitz & Michael Weber, 2014. "ifo Konjunkturprognose Ostdeutschland und Sachsen 2014/2015: Gute Konjunktur hält an," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(04), pages 11-17, August.

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    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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