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Konjunkturprognose 2013: Eurokrise kostet Auftrieb

Author

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

Im vierten Quartal 2012 dürfte die deutsche Wirtschaft voraussichtlich geschrumpft sein. Maßgeblich für die Konjunkturschwäche war die Eurokrise. Getragen von der Binnennachfrage dürfte die Konjunktur im Verlauf dieses Jahres aber wieder an Fahrt gewinnen, sofern die europäische Schuldenkrise nicht erneut eskaliert. Im Jahresdurchschnitt 2013 dürfte das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt, bei einem Unsicherheitsintervall (2/3-Wahrscheinlichkeit) von –0,6 % bis 2,0 %, um 0,7 % zunehmen. Der Beschäftigungsaufbau wird dabei aber noch nicht nennenswert in Gang kommen.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2013. "Konjunkturprognose 2013: Eurokrise kostet Auftrieb," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 20(01), pages 05-12, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:20:y:2013:i:01:p:05-12
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifoDD_13-01_05-12.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Arent & Michael Kloß & Robert Lehmann & Joachim Ragnitz, 2013. "Konjunkturprognose Ostdeutschland und Sachsen 2012/2013: Eurokrise bringt gesamtwirtschaftlicheEntwicklung nahezu zum Stillstand," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 20(01), pages 13-23, February.

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    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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