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Konjunkturprognose 2012: Deutsche Wirtschaft von Schuldenkrise ausgebremst

Listed author(s):
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus


In Deutschland ist das Bruttoinlandsprodukt bis zuletzt deutlich gestiegen. Frühindikatoren zeigen jedoch an, dass der deutschen Konjunktur ein Abschwung bevorsteht. Maßgeblich hierfür sind die sich abschwächende Weltwirtschaft und die europäische Schuldenkrise. Unter der Annahme, dass sich die Eurokrise nicht weiter verschärft und sich insbesondere Italien weiter am Markt finanzieren kann, dürfte eine Rezession in Deutschland vermieden werden. Dennoch wird das deutsche Bruttoinlandsprodukt 2012 voraussichtlich nur um 0,4 % zunehmen. Es ist daher zu erwarten, dass sich der Beschäftigungsaufbau deutlich verlangsamt. Gestützt von demographischen Faktoren dürfte die Arbeitslosenzahl aber noch um 140.000 zurückgehen.

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Article provided by ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Dresden berichtet.

Volume (Year): 19 (2012)
Issue (Month): 01 (February)
Pages: 04-10

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:19:y:2012:i:01:p:04-10
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